Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 29, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich. PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model