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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 31

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PENALTY on CIN-62-A.Redmond, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model