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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 4 yards (32-M.Walton, 42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.40 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model