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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model