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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model