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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

DET
52.2%
BUF
47.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.148 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
BUF 21
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DET

Bruce Ellington WR Out Hamstring
Da'Shawn Hand DE Out Knee
Kerryon Johnson RB Out Knee
Rick Wagner T Out Concussion
Charles Washington S Out Hamstring
Trevor Bates LB Questionable Ankle
Nick Bellore RB Questionable Ankle
Marcus Cooper CB Questionable Back
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Hip
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable Back

BUF

Ryan Lewis CB Out Concussion
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Shoulder
Stephen Hauschka K Questionable right Hip
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Hamstring
Logan Thomas TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 13
–
BUF 14

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:50 TD DET (10:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-A.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone, sliding from rear corner of end zone. DET 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 08:05 TD BUF (8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – BUF 6
  • Q2 03:50 TD DET (3:50) 34-Z.Zenner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – BUF 7
  • Q4 10:35 TD BUF (10:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-R.Foster for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at DET 12. DET 13 – BUF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 18 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 62%

    (7:27) 8-M.Darr punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 26%

    (4:02) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to BUF 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:18) 8-M.Darr punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:29) 8-M.Darr punts 38 yards to DET 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to BUF 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 13 for no gain (47-T.Walker).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 28%

    (13:12) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to BUF 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (8:16) 8-M.Darr punts 38 yards to DET 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to BUF 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 36 for 10 yards (51-K.Sheppard). BUF-19-I.McKenzie was injured during the play. His return is Probable. I.McKenzie taken off field on cart.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to DET 12 for 1 yard (91-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (91-A.Robinson), recovered by BUF-72-R.Groy at DET 13.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:41) 8-M.Darr punts 52 yards to DET 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 28-Q.Diggs to BUF 49 for 23 yards (8-M.Darr). Penalty during kick. Return credited to DET 28. PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:53) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to BUF 38, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 39 for 1 yard (17-A.Jones, 47-T.Walker).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (5:55) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:51) 8-M.Darr punts 42 yards to DET 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 13-T.Jones pushed ob at DET 30 for 12 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to BUF 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 48%

    (1:50) 17-J.Allen up the middle to DET 39 for 2 yards (97-R.Jean Francois).