4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) 8-M.Darr punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model