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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 8-M.Darr punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.05 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model