Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 7 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 8-M.Darr punts 52 yards to DET 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 28-Q.Diggs to BUF 49 for 23 yards (8-M.Darr). Penalty during kick. Return credited to DET 28. PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model