4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 81

Detroit Lions 13 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to BUF 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 36 for 10 yards (51-K.Sheppard). BUF-19-I.McKenzie was injured during the play. His return is Probable. I.McKenzie taken off field on cart.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.51 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP