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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 7 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 8-M.Darr punts 38 yards to DET 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model