4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 49

Detroit Lions 13 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to BUF 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model