Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 55

Detroit Lions 13 – Buffalo Bills 7

(14:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.50 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model