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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PHI
41.8%
DAL
58.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PHI defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DAL on 4 more days rest than PHI
  • PHI offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PHI

Jordan Hicks LB Out Calf
Jalen Mills CB Out Foot
Timmy Jernigan DT Questionable Back
Avonte Maddox CB Questionable Ankle
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Foot

DAL

Tavon Austin WR Out Groin
David Irving DE Out Ankle
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Geoff Swaim TE Out Wrist
Michael Gallup WR Questionable Illness
Tyron Smith T Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 23
–
DAL 29

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:28 FG DAL (2:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG DAL (:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. The 62-yard field goal is a team record, breaking the previous record of 56 yards, set four times, most recently by Dan Bailey on Sept. 17, 2017 in Denver. PHI 0 – DAL 6
  • Q3 09:01 FG DAL (9:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 0 – DAL 9
  • Q3 06:08 TD PHI (6:08) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DAL 9
  • Q4 12:15 FG PHI (12:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 9 – DAL 9
  • Q4 07:52 TD DAL (7:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – DAL 15
  • Q4 03:17 TD PHI (3:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 15 – DAL 16
  • Q4 03:12 TD DAL (3:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – DAL 22
  • Q4 01:45 TD PHI (1:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 43-D.Sproles for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 22 – DAL 23
  • Q5 02:00 TD DAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball caught at the 7 yard line after deflection by Rasul Douglas PHI 23 – DAL 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 63 yards to PHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 34%

    (9:28) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to DAL 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (2:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:03) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DAL 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 16 for 1 yard (36-D.Hall). PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 15.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:07) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 46%

    (:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. The 62-yard field goal is a team record, breaking the previous record of 56 yards, set four times, most recently by Dan Bailey on Sept. 17, 2017 in Denver.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:35) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to DAL 32, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-C.Beasley pushed ob at DAL 46 for 14 yards (37-T.Sullivan; 54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:02) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 36%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 43-D.Sproles to DAL 23 for 25 yards (25-X.Woods).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (12:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:18) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:36) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to DAL 47 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).