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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model