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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(12:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model