Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

(5:36) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to DAL 47 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model