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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(13:35) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to DAL 32, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-C.Beasley pushed ob at DAL 46 for 14 yards (37-T.Sullivan; 54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model