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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model