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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:07) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP