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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. The 62-yard field goal is a team record, breaking the previous record of 56 yards, set four times, most recently by Dan Bailey on Sept. 17, 2017 in Denver.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model