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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Thursday 2018-12-06 · 20:20 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

JAX
34.8%
TEN
65.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
TEN 24
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Out Quadricep
Abry Jones DT Out Shin
Cody Davis S Questionable Hamstring
Josh Walker G Questionable Foot

TEN

Dane Cruikshank S Out Knee
David Fluellen RB Out Knee
Darius Jennings WR Questionable Knee
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 9
–
TEN 30

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 TD TEN (9:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 00:59 SAF TEN (:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 7, and recovers at TEN 1. 17-C.Batson tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (48-L.Jacobs). JAX 2 – TEN 7
  • Q2 07:25 TD TEN (7:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-81-J.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. JAX 2 – TEN 13
  • Q2 00:10 FG TEN (:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 2 – TEN 16
  • Q3 07:24 TD TEN (7:24) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 2 – TEN 22
  • Q3 05:41 TD TEN (5:41) 22-D.Henry right end for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 2 – TEN 29
  • Q3 01:56 TD JAX (1:56) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 12-D.Westbrook for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-B.Orakpo]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 8 – TEN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:13) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to TEN 14, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson to TEN 19 for 5 yards (43-Q.Meeks; 22-C.Davis).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 7, and recovers at TEN 1. 17-C.Batson tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (48-L.Jacobs).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (9:34) 6-C.Kessler right guard to TEN 3 for 2 yards (94-A.Johnson).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (7:30) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:33) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to TEN 6, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-43-Q.Meeks.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to JAX 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 24 for -1 yards (46-J.Kalu).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:24) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to TEN 35, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:09) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to TEN 24, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 32 for 8 yards (57-N.DeLuca).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 12-D.Westbrook for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-B.Orakpo]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to JAX 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 43-Q.Meeks to JAX 6 for 1 yard (41-B.Trawick; 58-H.Landry).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:02) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Moncrief.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (6:12) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Davis.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at JAX 31 for -14 yards (26-L.Ryan).