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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 7, and recovers at TEN 1. 17-C.Batson tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (48-L.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP