Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Tennessee Titans 30

(3:33) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at JAX 31 for -14 yards (26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.28 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model