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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(13:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to JAX 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 43-Q.Meeks to JAX 6 for 1 yard (41-B.Trawick; 58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model