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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 2

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model