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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 2 – Tennessee Titans 30

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 12-D.Westbrook for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-B.Orakpo]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model