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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

SF
52.1%
TB
47.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: +0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Nick Mullens (SF): +0.317 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF on 6 more days rest than TB

Predicted Final Score

SF 26
–
TB 25
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SF

Pierre Garcon WR Out Knee
Joshua Garnett G Out Thumb
Reuben Foster LB Questionable Hamstring

TB

Lavonte David LB Out Knee
Justin Evans S Out Toe
M.J. Stewart CB Out Foot
Vinny Curry DE Questionable Ankle
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Thumb
Ronald Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Garrison Sanborn LS Questionable Knee
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Concussion
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Hamstring
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 9
–
TB 27

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:27 TD TB (8:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 08:37 TD SF (8:37) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 18-D.Pettis for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 03:23 FG TB (3:23) 5-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. SF 6 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:09 FG TB (:09) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. SF 6 – TB 13
  • Q3 11:05 FG SF (11:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 9 – TB 13
  • Q3 08:30 TD TB (8:30) 61-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 25-P.Barber up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – TB 19
  • Q4 14:21 TD TB (14:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 10-A.Humphries for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – TB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SF 10, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TB 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to TB 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:06) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to SF 40, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 13-R.James to SF 49 for 9 yards (32-J.Rodgers). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:24) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to SF 15, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 13-R.James to SF 21 for 6 yards (30-J.Shaw).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (3:23) 5-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to TB 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-A.Humphries to TB 41 for 6 yards (26-G.Mabin).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (11:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 51%

    (4:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to TB 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-33-T.Moore. PENALTY on SF-33-T.Moore, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 10.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to TB 37, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 37.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:08) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 15, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 17 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:12) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to SF 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.