4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to TB 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-33-T.Moore. PENALTY on SF-33-T.Moore, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model