Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(12:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TB 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.74 EP
71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model