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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to TB 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model