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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP