Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(1:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to TB 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-A.Humphries to TB 41 for 6 yards (26-G.Mabin).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model