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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 5-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model