Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to TB 37, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 37.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model