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Cleveland Browns

HC Gregg Williams
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CLE
44.7%
CIN
55.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CLE on 7 more days rest than CIN
  • CLE offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (CLE): -0.040 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CLE 22
–
CIN 23
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CLE

David Njoku TE Questionable Knee
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

CIN

Josh Malone WR Out Hamstring
Nick Vigil LB Out Knee
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Back
A.J. Green WR Questionable Toe
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 35
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:16 TD CLE (9:16) 63-A.Corbett reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-57-V.Rey was injured during the play. CLE 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 01:43 TD CLE (1:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 11-A.Callaway for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – CIN 0
  • Q2 09:27 TD CLE (9:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – CIN 0
  • Q2 02:30 TD CLE (2:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 27 – CIN 0
  • Q2 00:34 TD CIN (:34) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 28 – CIN 6
  • Q3 13:02 TD CLE (13:02) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-D.Fells for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 34 – CIN 7
  • Q3 05:01 TD CIN (5:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 35 – CIN 13
  • Q4 08:00 TD CIN (8:00) 6-J.Driskel up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 35 – CIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 35%

    (5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

    (3:06) 4-R.Bullock 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:16) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to CLE 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 14 for 7 yards (57-V.Rey; 46-C.Harris). PENALTY on CLE-82-O.Charles, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CLE 7.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 88%

    (4:10) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CIN 21 for 1 yard (50-J.Evans). Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:24) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-A.Callaway to CLE 30 for 6 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). CIN-29-T.McRae was injured during the play.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 25 for 1 yard (33-P.Gaines).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 40%

    (15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CIN 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-33-P.Gaines.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to CIN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 43 for 23 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 22-J.Peppers).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 48%

    (4:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard to CLE 30 for 12 yards (55-G.Avery).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (3:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Tate (21-D.Ward).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CIN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to 50 for 33 yards (54-T.Vallejo).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep left to 87-C.Uzomah (22-J.Peppers).