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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CIN 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-33-P.Gaines.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.25 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model