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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to CIN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 43 for 23 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 22-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.20 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model