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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 35

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard to CLE 30 for 12 yards (55-G.Avery).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.21 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model