4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CIN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to 50 for 33 yards (54-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.62 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model