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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 25 for 1 yard (33-P.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model