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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 4-R.Bullock 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model