4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 35

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep left to 87-C.Uzomah (22-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -0.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model