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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PIT
68.3%
JAX
31.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.272 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

PIT 27
–
JAX 20
Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Knee
Stephon Tuitt DE Out Elbow

JAX

Quenton Meeks CB Out Knee
Eli Ankou DT Doubtful Calf
Josh Walker G Doubtful Foot
Marcell Dareus DT Questionable Triceps
A.J. Cann G Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 20
–
JAX 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:15 FG JAX (13:15) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PIT 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 08:34 FG JAX (8:34) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PIT 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 03:41 FG JAX (3:41) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on PIT-93-D.McCullers, Illegal Formation, declined. PIT 0 – JAX 9
  • Q3 02:12 TD JAX (2:12) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to PIT 1 for 1 yard (51-J.Bostic). Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – JAX 15
  • Q3 01:31 TD PIT (1:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Bryan]. Penalty on JAX-42-B.Church, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. PIT 6 – JAX 16
  • Q4 02:36 TD PIT (2:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – JAX 16
  • Q4 00:08 TD PIT (:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – JAX 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 34%

    (12:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (10:19) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to JAX 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to PIT 25, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:16) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to JAX 6, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-20-C.Sutton.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%

    (13:15) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:17) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to JAX 17, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 42 for 25 yards (56-A.Chickillo).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

    (8:34) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%

    (3:41) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on PIT-93-D.McCullers, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:49) 4-J.Berry punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to PIT 30, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 37 for 7 yards (53-B.Brown).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 34%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 30-J.Conner to JAX 45 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:30) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to JAX 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to PIT 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 17 for no gain (17-D.Chark).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:55) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to JAX 48, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-D.Westbrook to PIT 41 for 11 yards (54-L.Fort).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 42%

    (6:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Conner.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to PIT 32, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.