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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to JAX 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model