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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to PIT 25, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP