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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model