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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(6:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Conner.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model