Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(1:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to PIT 32, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.96 EP
52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model