Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 87

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(1:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to PIT 30, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 37 for 7 yards (53-B.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.67 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model